The one in which I consider changing the name of this blog page

 

Me before taking this course (right), vs me after taking this course (left) - zoom in, it's worth it.

Really, at this point - I may as well rename this blog page Kayleigh's Continuous Crisis. The existential crisis of two weeks ago appears to be a gift that keeps on giving.

My original plan for this week's blog was to discuss the crushing realisation that the 7-day long water outage I'm currently living through is going to become the norm for us in the coming years. Whilst this particular water outage is not necessarily a function of climate change, but rather a result of poor resource management, it did get me thinking about future water supply. That in turn, led to a very scary thought, which truly kicked off this week’s existential crisis.

South Africa is a water scarce country that receives almost 50% less rainfall than the global average. In addition to this, we’re not very water-savvy, and on average, use almost 50% more water per capita than the global average. And finally, for the triple-whammy: our rainfall is classified as ‘unreliable’ due to the variability in year-on-year as well as interdecadal rainfall patterns. An increasing population will put further strain on our already very limited supply of water. And let’s not get started on the water consumption posed by our trusty parastatal energy provider, ESKOM, which apparently uses 10 000 litres of water per second. So in summation, South Africa has a very limited supply of water, we don’t use it responsibly, and this will shortly (as in 2025) result in physical water scarcity. Which means long-lasting water outages are going to become commonplace – great!

Click here to find out more about South Africa's water source areas

But I digress from my true weekly crisis here. Whilst thinking about how  we are careening towards a country-wide, and one day world-wide water crisis, I was hit by a sudden and horrifying realisation – the same climatic events that affect the availability of water, also affect the availability of wine. Panic!

I’ll very quickly explain the difference between climate change and climate variability. It’s important to know the difference, if you want to sound smart at your next wine-tasting! Climate change is a much longer-term change in mean climatic conditions. So, for example, when we think about global warming, we’re seeing a 1.1°C increase in global temperatures over the last 100-odd years. Climate variability, however, has a shorter time-scale, where the average climatic conditions of a month or a season change within years or decades. So global warming is an example of climate change, whilst a wetter summer is an example of climate variability.

Right, now that you’ve got that down – back to the wine!

In terms of the effects of climate change on viticulture (that’s the study of growing grapes – it’s a whole bachelor’s degree, I swear!), there is a wealth of records and research that dates as far back as 1000 years. In a number of wine-producing areas, there was an average increase of 1.26°C during the grape growing season between 1950-1999, with one area experiencing an increase of 4.06°C during that time. So clearly, climate change has affected the areas in which we grow wine grapes.

Whilst I’m generally a “Local is Lekker” kinda gal, in terms of climate variability, the best research on this centres on Australian wine production. Both Australian and South African wine production is impacted by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here is a very useful interactive website where you can see how ENSO is influenced by the strength of the trade winds and variation in the thermocline (that’s a layer of significant temperature change within the ocean). If you’re too lazy to follow the link, here’s a brief summary of ENSO: Best exhibited over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, ENSO is a natural climate pattern that swings between phases every 3-7 years. This ‘swing’ is caused by the weakening or strengthening of the tropical easterly winds – AKA the trade winds. If the trade winds weaken, warm water that would normally travel to the eastern coast of Australia only makes it halfway across the Pacific – leaving both Australia and South America with dry conditions and increased temperatures – this is known as the El Niño phase. However, if the trade winds strengthen, that warm ocean water is carried to the east Australian coast, and accumulates there, which results in greatly increased rainfall and lower temperatures, which is called the La Niña phase.

I can't believe you were too lazy to follow the link! Anyway, El Nino on the left, La Nina on the right.

What does that mean for the wine industry, you ask? Well increased temperatures during the growing phase could result in lower yields, which means less wine – booooo! Conversely, warmer temperatures during the ripening phase generally leads to sweeter grapes and bolder flavours in the wine – yaaaay! But this could also lead to a decrease in acidity and other important compounds, which is bad for the overall taste of the wine – boooo! It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact effects of climate change and climate variability on wine production, because these effects vary by region, but regardless of the area, there will be changes, both good and bad.

So now, in addition to contemplating our impending water scarcity crisis, I also have to contend with the fact that an important ‘existential-crisis-coping-mechanism’ is also in jeopardy? Seems a lot to ask of a person, don’t you think?

Did I just turn a discussion about water into one about wine? Well, at least 13 years of catholic-school education was not wasted on me!